> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://redflag.org.au/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # What to expect in the US midterm elections - URL: https://redflag.org.au/article/what-to-expect-in-the-us-midterm-elections/ - Published: 2026-10-28T04:20:37.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-28T04:20:37.000Z - Description: The Democratic Party is expected to win back control of the US House of Representatives and possibly even the Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections. But just how much difference will that make? - Author: Lance Selfa - Tags: USA and North America, International, Elections The Republican Party, also known as the GOP or Grand Old Party, controls both chambers of the US Congress, allowing President Donald Trump to pursue his far-right agenda with little legislative resistance. But that may soon change. In the United States, federal elections occur every two years. The congressional midterms, so named because they occur in the middle of a president’s term, will be held on Tuesday. Polling suggests Republicans will be trounced. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, who serve fixed two-year terms, and about one-third of the 100 Senators, who serve six-year terms. A range of state-level races, including for governors in California, Michigan and Florida, will also take place. The Democratic Party is expected to win back control of the House and possibly even the Senate. But just how much difference will that make? **Lance Selfa**, author of *The Democrats: A Critical History* and editor of *US Politics in an Age of Uncertainty*, previews the elections and what might come after them. --- Multiple indicators point to a Democratic victory in the midterm elections. Trump is an historically unpopular president. Gasoline and diesel prices are at their highest in years because of Trump’s war in Iran. [Consumer confidence is at a 73-year low](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT/?ref=redflag.org.au), and [74 percent of Americans](https://uspollingdata.com/polls/right-track-wrong-track/?ref=redflag.org.au) tell pollsters that the country is moving in the wrong direction. So it’s no surprise that Democrats are favoured to win the House. In fact, Republicans have given up trying to forestall that. [Data-driven forecasters like G. Elliott Morris](https://theconversation.com/democrats-remain-clear-favourites-to-gain-control-of-congress-at-midterms-as-trumps-ratings-slide-again-295134?ref=redflag.org.au) and Nate Silver place the probability of a Democratic House higher than 90 percent, and the probability of the Democrats winning the Senate at 70 percent or higher. The well-regarded [*New York Times* poll](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/politics/trump-midterm-election-poll.html?ref=redflag.org.au), published 21 October, estimated that, were the election held then, Democrats would receive 52 percent of the vote, compared to 41 percent for the Republicans. If that holds, it will be the biggest Democrat popular-vote margin in a midterm election since the Watergate scandal brought down the Republicans in 1974. That result wouldn’t represent an endorsement for the Democratic Party, which remains as unpopular as the Republicans. But US midterm elections are classically “throw the bums out” elections. And the Republicans, who control all parts of the national government, are the bums this year. Trump and his toadies declare the polls “fake” and promise a Republican victory. But their behaviour—Trump, Vice President Vance and other administration figures are campaigning almost exclusively in “red” conservative areas—suggests they know they are in deep trouble. Polls currently show that the Senate race in Kansas, where Democrats haven’t won since 1932, is a toss-up. And Democrat James Talarico is slightly favoured to win a Senate seat in Texas, where a Democrat hasn’t won statewide since the 1990s. The last-minute campaign blitz and the truly obscene amount of money billionaires are spending to shore up Republican candidates may limit GOP losses. It seems clear, however, that the Democrats are headed for victory next week. The real question will be how high the Democratic wave will crest. ### **What will Trump do?** All the above assumes that 3 November will unfold as a “normal” midterm election. But Trump and his minions are talking openly about challenging or overturning the results. Given Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, nothing is “off the table”. Trump, his captive Supreme Court, and Republicans at all levels of government have conducted a years-long campaign to disenfranchise sections of the population and undermine democracy. This includes the Supreme Court’s evisceration of the Voting Rights Act, gerrymandering to lock in GOP majorities, and Trump’s so-far failed attempt to use the US Postal Service to make mail-in voting more difficult. Trump and his Justice Department have continued to act on the lie that non-US citizens are voting illegally. The DOJ has tried to force state governments, constitutionally responsible for running US elections, to hand over their voter rolls. With voting data in hand, the Trump government says it can purge non-citizens from the rolls. So far, no state has complied, and the courts have ruled against Trump and the DOJ. However, the DOJ has persisted. In late October, it indicted 28 individuals in California whom it claims voted illegally. Moreover, it sent lists of supposed non-citizen voters to each California county, threatening each with legal action if they didn’t set those voters’ ballots aside. The Trump DOJ has even filed a pre-emptive suit against Alaska—before a single vote is tallied—because it allowed two Republican candidates with the same name to appear on the ballot. Trump has also increased the harassment of Democratic politicians, such as Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar and Virginia state Senator Louise Lucas, accusing them of crimes. These tactics are meant to intimidate opponents of Trump, while threatening legal sanctions against thousands of election officials and government workers who are charged with making US elections free and fair. It’s also worth watching what sort of chicanery—from closing polling stations to dropping thousands from the voting rolls— Republican-controlled states will deploy to limit the vote. There are other more far-fetched tactics Trump and his minions contemplate. They might declare that foreign governments are intervening in the election—which would require the federal government to seize state voting machines. They might deploy ICE thugs, police or the military to polling places to harass and intimidate minority voters who disproportionately vote for Democrats. MAGA hardliners are even calling on Trump to implement “martial law”. Even though these moves are far-fetched, the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol should tell us that they are not beyond a desperate Trump or his lackeys like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Still, to work, they depend on a disciplined and willing chain of command that doesn’t appear to exist currently. Remember, this is the same crew whose failure to make the most basic war preparations allowed Iran to knock out most US military bases in the Middle East. Whether all of this will work to preserve Trump’s and the Republicans’ hold on the state is unknown, especially if the Democratic victory is as overwhelming as many expect. The Democratic Party is mobilising hundreds of lawyers and thousands of poll watchers to counter them. But if some of these dirty tricks succeed while Trump and the GOP are overwhelmingly unpopular, socialists should be prepared for street mobilisations. Democrats may want to fight it out in the courts, but the balance of social forces will matter more. And this is where Trump’s historic unpopularity has a material impact on events. ### **Follow the money** The 2026 midterm election is on track to be the most expensive of all time, with billions being spent on both sides. Open Secrets, a non-partisan monitor of campaign spending, noted that “outside groups”, i.e., groups not officially connected to candidates, had [spent more than $2 billion by early October](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/10/outside-spending-nears-2-billion-and-the-biggest-groups-pull-further-ahead?ref=redflag.org.au). These spending levels would have been considered excessive for a presidential race only about a decade ago. But as campaign spending—mostly 24/7 television and online advertising—spirals upward, the leverage a small number of billionaires gain over the political system increases as well. By some estimates, Elon Musk alone could spend as much as half a billion dollars to support Republicans. This is more than Trump’s campaign committee spent in 2024\. But for Musk and his ilk, this is pocket change. And even accepting that these are truly obscene amounts of money that amount to legalised bribery of politicians who set the legal framework for capitalist profit-making, they are a small price to pay for the capitalist class and its richest members. We are amid an unprecedented investment boom ([estimated at $10 trillion between 2025 and 2032](https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2026/09/26/ai-the-biggest-economic-bet-in-us-history/?ref=redflag.org.au)) to remake the US economy under the aegis of artificial intelligence “hyperscalers”. A few billion to shape the legislative and regulatory environment is a trivial expense in comparison. While the liberal anti-Trump opposition has focused on the spending of right-wing billionaires like Musk or the Uihleins of Illinois, we can’t ignore that the candidates raking in the most money in this midterm cycle are almost exclusively Democrats! As [Open Secrets’ analysis of early October reports to the Federal Election Commission pointed out](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/10/talarico-passes-ossoff-as-top-fundraiser-while-democrats-dominate-latest-fec-reports/?ref=redflag.org.au): > “Democrats dominate the top fundraising rankings in both \[the House and Senate\]. They hold the top nine spots among Senate candidates and nine of the top 11 among House candidates.” The leading Senate candidates, Texas challenger Talarico and incumbent Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff, hold huge advantages over their Republican opponents. And the leading House fundraiser, with the most cash on hand, is [none other than “democratic socialist” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/10/talarico-passes-ossoff-as-top-fundraiser-while-democrats-dominate-latest-fec-reports/?ref=redflag.org.au)! Many Democrats may say that they (mostly) reject corporate political action committee (PAC) money and depend on “individual contributions” from ordinary people. But it’s clear from Federal Election Commission data that most individual donors to Democrats are well-off people associated with the tech, higher education and health sectors. And if you look at [Representative Hakeem Jeffries,](https://www.opensecrets.org/profiles/hakeem-jeffries/us%5Fcongress/pacs?cycle=2024&mpid=1050304&ref=redflag.org.au) who is set to become Speaker of the House and third in line to the presidency, you will find that he doesn’t turn down corporate PAC money. About 85 percent of his funding comes from business interests. Moreover, corporations launder their contributions through “super PACs”, providing another source of support for candidates. Democrats may be spineless and feckless, ineffective in delivering for their liberal base when they gain official state power. But the main reason goes beyond character and is better explained by [Upton Sinclair’s admittedly gendered quip](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/21810-it-is-difficult-to-get-a-man-to-understand-something?ref=redflag.org.au): “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the organisation charged with recruiting and funding Democratic congressional candidates, draws more than 60 percent of its war chest from corporate PACs and rich individuals who can afford $50,000 contributions, [writes socialist Kim Moody](https://againstthecurrent.org/atc245/the-rise-of-democratic-socialists-democratic-discontent/?ref=redflag.org.au#R24). Given that, is it any surprise why the vast majority of congressional Democrats are pro-corporate “centrists”? Two of the most active sectors in political donations—cryptocurrency and AI/tech—have leaned toward Trump and the GOP since Trump retook the White House. But they remain “bipartisan” in their [approach to winning support in the legislature](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/crypto-money-is-flooding-both-parties-its-coming-from-the-same-place/?ref=redflag.org.au) and among state-level politicians. In fact, one leading AI Super PAC runs two divisions: one that [donates to Republicans and one that donates to Democrats.](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/07/26/ai-super-pac-operatives-profile-01008227?ref=redflag.org.au) The northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, are becoming as reliable a Democratic Party stronghold as New York or the San Francisco Bay Area. But the area also has the largest concentration of AI data centres in the US, [and the region’s Democratic congressmembers receive](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2026/07/northern-virginias-house-members-take-big-tech-cash-while-residents-push-back-on-data-centers/?ref=redflag.org.au) hundreds of thousands in AI industry donations. Despite huge bipartisan popular opposition to Big Tech and data centre exploitation of land, tax breaks, power and water around the country, don’t be surprised if a Democratic Congress and the Republican White House figure out a way to pass “reforms” on AI and crypto that will leave ordinary people wondering why they voted for “change” in 2026. ### **Will it stop the slide to authoritarianism?** In the event of a Democratic sweep, people who despise Trump and MAGA will alternate between celebrating and feeling relieved. But, just as in 2020, they shouldn’t assume that the threat of US authoritarianism is vanquished. This will be so for both specific, “conjunctural”, reasons, and for more general aspects related to our political era. The first conjunctural reason is the most obvious. Trump will still have the White House and the administrative machinery of the federal government at his disposal even if the Democrats take the Congress. Trump is likely to increase his lawless and authoritarian behaviour while daring the Democrats and the courts to stop him. Even moderate legislation to limit Trump’s tariffs or to restore cuts to federal health care programs will face Trump vetoes. The second conjunctural reason to keep up the fight is that Democrats may be the GOP’s only alternative on most ballots, [but they are not an opposition party](https://internationalsocialism.net/have-the-democrats-finally-grown-a-spine/?ref=redflag.org.au). The Democratic Party is a corporate-backed entity dedicated to supporting American capitalism and US empire. Democrats are campaigning on vague promises to bring “affordability” to ordinary Americans and “accountability” to the criminals in the Trump administration. If they do take one or both houses of Congress, they will become locked in a cage match with an administration that will not recognise Democrats’ authority. On the “accountability” front, Democrats are already lowering expectations. Jeffries and even leading progressives are saying they want to avoid a [“performative” impeachment](https://www.axios.com/2026/10/23/trump-impeachment-democrats-darializa-tlaib-left?ref=redflag.org.au) of Trump. So, despite condemning the president’s corruption and lawlessness, they are already signalling they don’t want to use congressional power to hold him accountable. On affordability, they are promising legislation [to reverse some Trump policies](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/us/politics/democrats-congress-majority-agenda.html?ref=redflag.org.au) (back to the Biden *status quo*), but they are also pursuing the fool’s errand of winning Republican support for them—in a Congress where Republican minorities will be hard-core MAGA zealots. This is a recipe for failure. The third conjunctural reason is that a Democratic majority in Congress won’t change the fact that a small handful of billionaires exercise more power over policy and ordinary people’s lives than any “democracy” should tolerate. As author Hamilton Nolan told *New Republic* journalist Perry Bacon: > “\[W\]hen money buys influence, and you have these obscene, enormous, nation-level fortunes in private hands, it just at a certain point crowds out the ability of everybody else to influence politics in a way that you have any kind of balance of power.” The American oligarchy may be in Trump’s circle now, but it can easily move its money and power to influence Democrats as well. Especially when they have willing Democrats like Jeffries or California Governor Gavin Newsom to attend to them. Newsom, a presidential hopeful for 2028, is opposing a referendum for a one-time tax on billionaire wealth to fund state health care programs. That’s how the “affordability agenda” crashes on the shoals of American oligarchy—or is watered down so much that no one even notices it. The question of oligarchy leads into the general character of the “era” of politics that Trump has come to define in the US. A generation of neoliberal hollowing out of good jobs and government services in the service of oligarchy has [left the share of wealth going to labour at its lowest level since the 1940s](https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2026/10/01/labours-share-2/?ref=redflag.org.au). This reality has undermined the legitimacy of the “centre-left” and “centre-right” parties that had dominated the politics of liberal democracies since the Second World War. The far right has surged into political spaces the old parties vacated, while labour and social movements have been weakened. Lula's come-from-behind victory in Brazil’s presidential election and the landslide defeat of MAGA-friendly Vŭkic in Serbia show that far-right victory isn’t inevitable. But if fighting authoritarianism relies only on electoralism and leaves it to mainstream political parties, we are only one election away from the authoritarian consolidation Trump has so far been unable to accomplish. So those who will welcome the GOP’s defeat next week shouldn’t look to manoeuvring in Washington. They should draw inspiration from [mass movements](https://redflag.org.au/article/europes-youth-and-workers-in-revolt/)—like those in India, France, the Spanish state and Serbia, to name a few—for a strategy to put the right on the defensive.