Understanding the net zero circus

In a public farce, the Liberal federal party room officially abandoned its support for reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Despite the hue and cry in mainstream politics, Australia’s climate trajectory is unlikely to be affected by the decision. As Adam Morton noted in the Guardian, at least there’s some honesty in the decision—the Liberals and Nationals never supported net zero anyway.

The significance of the Liberals’ abandonment of net zero can be understood as a symbol of bigger political dynamics. It’s a victory for the conservative factions of the Liberals in their battle to pull the party further to the political right. And it’s an indication of the impact that the global far right is having on Australian conservatives.

Net zero targets took off as a global greenwashing fad in 2021, supported by former US President Joe Biden, former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Net zero never meant zero carbon emissions, or even reducing carbon emissions. Instead, it involves “offsetting” emissions: net zero is the magical moment when the amount of carbon dioxide released is roughly equal to the amount being “offset”.

There are three main problems with the approach.

First, the offsetting technologies do not work—at least, not anywhere near the level needed to offset the billions of tonnes of CO₂ emitted every year.

Second, even if these technologies did work, the net zero approach assumes it is possible to reduce the effects of greenhouse gases on the environment by simply swapping them in and out, like a Catholic trading repentance for sin each Sunday.

In reality, the myriad consequences of fossil fuel extraction, refinement and combustion and the subsequent impacts of rising temperatures on the environment and human society are impossible to measure and contain within a spreadsheet equation.

Last, net zero was designed to allow countries to “commit” to targets that require no disruption to big business profits. They can be agreed on without disrupting production in the coal, gas or oil industries. That the target was unveiled by former PM Scott Morrison four years ago speaks volumes. Morrison, champion of the “gas-fired recovery”, famous for fondling coal in parliament and fleeing to Hawaii while the country burned, viewed net zero as a veil for covering his crimes against the planet.

Given that the net zero target was meaningless to begin with, but provided a modicum of green cover, it’s reasonable to question why the Liberals would make such a fuss about dropping the policy. As support for it has become somewhat synonymous with action on climate change, the prevailing opinion among political commentators is that dropping net zero is electoral suicide. But there’s more to it.

For one, polling conducted by the Resolve Political Monitor in early November suggests that public opinion on net zero has shifted since 2021, most notably among Liberal voters. Overall, almost a third of voters preferred ditching net zero; just 17 percent of Coalition voters indicated they want Australia to keep the target and do everything it can to reach it. Among One Nation and National Party voters, support for net zero was even lower.

It’s not hard to see the electoral logic for the right. Ditching net zero will likely cost the Liberals moderate city voters, but it’s part of a broader right-wing political program aimed at winning back votes from the likes of One Nation, which is polling at record highs.

Whether this is a viable strategy remains uncertain, as the Liberals have continued to haemorrhage votes to their right since ditching net zero. But for people like Andrew Hastie, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Angus Taylor, there’s more to politics than immediate electoral victory. This confounds mainstream commentators, who have largely maintained since Labor’s 2022 election victory that the Liberal Party must reorient to the moderate centre, cut back on the culture wars and resolve factional bickering if it is to return to government.

This is not what is happening. Dumping net zero is only the latest step in the long march of the party’s hard right and conservative factions, part of a very public battle to shape the party in their own image. These are people with a vision for society, one that fits with the new hard-right norms of the Western world, and they are seeking to transform the Liberal Party into a vehicle for the world they want to see.

Perhaps the worst outcome of the Liberal Party dumping net zero is the greenwashing service it offers the Labor government. The government’s net zero plan is a hoax, designed to cover for its commitment to expanding fossil fuel production. But with the Coalition as the perfect foil, Labor can carry on its climate wrecking beneath a mask of lesser evilism.

Undoubtedly, Labor’s record of deceit on climate policy and net zero has helped to build widespread scepticism about climate action and renewable energy. Amid the cost-of-living crisis and rising energy prices, in which Labor has overseen the destruction of working-class living standards, the right has exploited net zero scepticism by playing to concerns about the affordability of renewables and linking renewables to the agenda of “woke elites”.

This emerging common sense is far from inevitable. Tackling the climate crisis is fundamentally in the interest of working-class people across the country, who already face the uneven burden of climate disasters. To turn the situation around, we need to ditch the pro-business sham of net zero. Tackling climate change requires challenging the profits of fossil fuel bosses, bringing the fossil fuel industry into public hands and massively expanding public investment in renewable energy.