Labor has crawled to victory in the Stafford byelection in Brisbane’s inner north. Labor came a distant second to the LNP on primary votes, but narrowly won the seat thanks to Greens preferences.
Despite the victory, this result is a harsh reality check for Labor and an encouraging result for the LNP government. Since the seat was reestablished in 2001, Labor has held Stafford for all but two years.
Labor ran on a confected scare campaign about the LNP potentially cutting 93 beds from the Prince Charles Hospital. But with the federal Labor government moving to kick 300,000 people off the NDIS to pay for increased military spending, this campaign rang hollow to many.
The LNP experienced a swing towards it, despite being in government at a state level and Stafford being a solid Labor seat. Despite not having the votes to win, the LNP secured more than 40 percent of the vote. This is a significant result given the party’s poor results in urban areas at the 2024 state election and the Liberal Party’s crisis nationally.
One Nation chose not to stand a candidate, so there was no test of their support which is surging nationally.
This result will put wind in the government’s sails. Premier David Crisafulli has high approval ratings, and is no hate figure like his predecessor Campbell Newman. This is despite the fact that his government is cracking down on the Palestine movement, expanding racist police powers to harass and jail Indigenous children, winding up many of the meagre environmental protections that exist and blocking access to vital healthcare for trans young people. If the LNP gets its way, billions of dollars will go straight into the pockets of developers and tourism companies in the lead up to the 2032 Olympics, rather than hospitals and schools.
In a silver lining, the Queensland Socialists have made a splash in their first election campaign, coming fourth in a field of nine candidates with 3.84 percent of the vote. The party’s Stafford candidate was Liam Parry, the first person arrested under the state government’s new laws that criminalise pro-Palestine speech.
The Queensland Socialists were starting from behind: due to registration timing issues, the party’s name did not appear on the ballot, instead Parry was listed as an independent. The short turn-around also meant there was limited time to campaign and raise much-needed funds.
Nevertheless, the party mobilised more than 100 volunteers for doorknocks and pre-poll campaigning, knocking on more than 8600 doors, or about a third of the electorate in the lead up to polling day.
Every one of the twelve polling booths were staffed by Queensland Socialists volunteers on election day, with votes above 6 percent being recorded at three booths, as well as more than 4 percent of the pre-poll vote. The party’s policies of cancelling the Olympics, standing up for Palestine and putting politicians on a workers’ wage were popular with voters.
This result is a good start for Queensland Socialists, and a solid basis from which to continue building the sort of socialist movement we desperately need: one that will stand up for civil liberties, against racist law and order campaigns, and for workers’ rights.
