Less than eighteen months ago, Western Australian Corrective Services Minister Paul Papalia comfortably held the seat of Secret Harbour, in Perth’s southern suburbs, with a two-party preferred vote of 61.5 percent in the state election. The by-election on Saturday wasn’t even close. One Nation currently leads 57-43 on a two-party preferred basis with 75 percent of the vote counted.
ON candidate Luke Herdegen’s 39 percent primary vote represents a swing of more than 30 percent to the party since last year. Labor’s primary vote plummeted to less than 25 percent, for a negative swing of 22 percent.
Labor’s campaign was utterly tone deaf. Papalia, who retired last month, triggering the by-election, told the West Australian days before the election: ‘‘We live in the best state in the best country on planet Earth, and part of the reason for that is good, solid, responsible government”. Anthony Albanese flew to Perth, not to campaign in the election, but for a $10,000-a-head fundraising dinner in a mansion on a street nicknamed “millionaire’s row”.
The party’s candidate selection was no better. Georgia Tree, a government relations advisor to Woodside Energy, was parachuted into what was considered “safe” territory. She previously worked for Federal Resources Minister Madeline King. Tree tried to leverage her working-class roots, saying how important Medicare and TAFE were to her parents. But all she could muster was a pathetic $100 fuel payment for motorists as her answer to the cost-of-living crisis.
Labor threw its all at the campaign, spending more than $400,000 (of which $14,850 came from Woodside). The premier seemingly never left the candidate’s side, while government MPs from all across Perth doorknocked. Labor also spent millions on a pork-barrelling spree and promised to finally start work on a train station they first promised ten years ago. But it was to no avail.
Despite what WA Labour tells itself, voters are not happy. A Demos poll in late August asked respondents if the state government was doing a good or bad job managing particular issues. Its best result was 0 percent for “net good job” (i.e. the same percentage thought it was doing a good and bad job) for education and schools. On the cost-of-living, net good job was negative 56 percent; for housing it was negative 57 percent.
Indeed, the health and education systems are in crisis. The housing situation is thrown into stark relief on Memorial Drive, in the neighbouring Rockingham electorate, where hundreds of homeless people sleep in tents and caravans. Yet funding can be found to build housing for 1,200 defence personnel from the US and UK. In fact, Labor governments are spending billions of dollars on nearby military facilities at HMAS Stirling and the Henderson industrial precinct.
Secret Harbour is one of the least diverse seats in the state. There are fewer immigrants than the state average; those there hail largely from the UK, New Zealand and South Africa. Largely working class, more people have vocational qualifications than university degrees.
Gym owner Herdegen’s pitch centred on infrastructure, the cost of living, crime, immigration and housing. He told voters that Labor had neglected the area for too long, and this was an opportunity to send a message. Herdegen’s campaign did not shy away from far-right talking points. One social media video, for instance, talked about “saving the family suburb”, blaming a “population explosion” for ruining the “suburban Australian dream”, featuring white faces and nostalgic music. The One Nation campaign also spent a huge amount.
The Liberals did badly, coming third with around 17 percent of the primary vote (a negative swing of nearly 8 percent. State Liberal leader Basil Zempilas provoked a stoush with the Liberal federal MP for Canning, Andrew Hastie (whose seat overlaps with Secret Harbour), by claiming that a One Nation win would actually be a Liberal “victory”.
The Greens vote held mostly steady at 7.5 percent. The party campaigned on Labor’s neglect of the area, the cost of living, housing and against the AUKUS security pact.
So this was a good night for the racist far-right bigots of One Nation. The orange wave is real. Prior to Secret Harbour, it remained to be seen if One Nation could actually win seats off Labor. They can, and “safe” ones at that. Labor had held Secret Harbour and its previous incarnations since 1989. Only in 2008 and 2025 did Labor candidate need preferences to win. In the COVID-19 election of 2021, Papalia won Secret Harbour’s predecessor seat of Warnbro with a 77 percent primary vote.
The result is also ominous for Victoria, where several seats resemble Secret Harbour, and the government is less popular than its Western Australian counterpart. Here, Labor still holds 45 out of 59 seats in the lower house. Premier Roger Cook may not be loved, but he is not hated either. His preferred premier result is plus 7 percent, compared to negative 3 percent for Zempilas and negative 15 percent for WA One Nation leader Rod Caddies.
This by-election was a choice between Woodside’s candidate or Gina Rinehart’s candidate, as former teal candidate for Fremantle Kate Hulett quipped. In this petrostate there is a revolving door between WA Labor and the big gas and iron ore companies. Former Premier Mark McGowan took advisory roles with Mineral Resources and BHP on leaving politics. Ben Wyatt, McGowan’s Treasurer for four years, is a director of Woodside. The purported “alternative” to this is just another front for business interests.
We desperately need an alternative. Get involved with the Socialist Party wherever you live.
