In his first statement released following the ousting of Jacinta Allan, Victorian Premier Ben Carroll promised “a new direction” for Victoria. So far, it’s been the longitudinal equivalent of prostrating yourself at the feet of the bosses and hoping for a better ride in the media. And it doesn’t feel that new.
Granted, Carroll came to office more determined than Allan to concede to each and every one of the right-wing attacks on the Labor government. He has distanced himself from the Big Build, and immediately announced a royal commission into the CFMEU, the key demand of the bosses and right wing who see an opportunity to strike a blow against unionism.
Carroll has also announced a softening of the land tax changes introduced by former premier Daniel Andrews, one of the few progressive taxation policies introduced in recent years. This is a signal to business and the wealthy that a Carroll government will not be expecting them to make sacrifices to reduce the state’s debt.
But on many other issues, Carroll is more of the same. Crime is an example. The capitalist media’s constant focus on incidents of anti-social behaviour has created the impression that Victorians are living in an era of unprecedented violence and crime. Yet the crime rate is roughly the same as it was a decade ago, according to data drawn from the Victorian Crime Statistics Agency.
Nevertheless, Caroll has announced a “zero tolerance” approach to crime, involving “less bail, more jail”. Not satisfied with their draconian “adult time for adult crime” laws introduced by Allan which target children as young as 13, Labor has promised a review aimed at legislating harsher sentences for young offenders. His government has also committed $150 million in new funding for expanded police and PSO numbers. The latter are being empowered to patrol in wider areas, including shopping malls.
Police are also being given the right to frisk people for knives anywhere at any time, despite a 2022 Griffith University review into a similar law in Queensland finding that there was “no evidence” that it deterred knife carrying or led to a reduction in violent offending. What the policy will definitely achieve is to expand the systematic harassment of youths from poor and migrant backgrounds.
To the extent there are real issues with anti-social behaviour and crime, much of it is driven by poverty, the housing crisis and lack of social services. According to the Council for Homeless Persons (CHP), the homeless population rose by 24 percent in the five years to 2021, the last census for which data is available. The perpetrators of this invisible crime are the developers and the banks, but most of all the Labor government, which is responsible for Victoria having the lowest proportion of public and community housing in Australia. The CHP also reported that the Victorian government slashed spending on social housing by 9 percent in the 2024–25 budget, despite having the largest number of people seeking emergency housing support.
The Labor government is also demolishing every public housing tower in the city to make way for private development on lucrative inner-city land. The residents of these buildings have largely been dispersed to the outer suburbs, where housing is cheaper and services are woefully inadequate.
In a similar vein, the government has failed to address the ballooning numbers of people seeking support in dealing with drug and alcohol problems. In May, the Victorian Alcohol and Drug Association reported there were 5,122 Victorians on daily waitlists for drug treatment services, a 115 percent increase since the pandemic. These are people who are actively seeking support, but 40 percent had not even been assessed.
Insofar as there is youth crime, it can’t be separated from the conditions of life for many young people, and in particular the condition of schools. Too many, especially those in poor areas, are not adequately resourced, particularly when it comes to assisting students with special needs. It is a disgrace that we still lack full-time professional social workers and counsellors in every public school, and that it is incredibly difficult to get funding for support staff in classrooms without a disability diagnosis. The government prefers to lock kids up rather than support them to get an education.
Faced with these issues, the obvious answer is to increase funding to assist people in acute situations to find shelter, health care, job and educational opportunities and financial assistance.
There are a handful of measures that aim to sweeten the otherwise bitter pill. The establishment of ten public, walk-in dental clinics across the state is one. The proposal to cap fees for toll roads and public transport fees to $30 a day is another. While superficially attractive, this is essentially a $300 million a year taxpayer subsidy to Metro and the toll companies—socialists call for both to be renationalised without compensation. Labor has also promised to provide free abortion care on demand, a relatively cheap and very overdue measure, likely to cost just $7.5 million a year. None of this will fundamentally address cost-of-living issues for working-class people.
Wage rises, which would make a significant difference to the standard of living of hundreds of thousands of Victorians, are not on offer from this government. Teachers, health workers and doctors have been denied their pay demands by the Carroll government, and it has maintained the 3 percent wage cap for public sector workers, which is well below the rate of inflation.
Overall, Labor’s response to the surge in support for One Nation and growing support for the Liberals has been to attempt to curry favour with the bosses while throwing some crumbs at its base. The capitalist establishment is far from convinced, and is clearly all-in on a Liberal victory come November. Yet the effect of Carroll’s approach means that whoever wins, Victorian workers face an extended period of reactionary law and order policies, declining living standards and reduced investment into public services.
